Publications

Submitted/ In Review

Ennis, Kelsey E., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Marybeth C. Arcodia, Martin A. Fernandez, Eric D. Maloney, 2025. "Turning Up the Heat: Assessing 2-m Temperature Forecast Errors in AI Weather Prediction Models During Heat Waves", submitted. Preprint available here.
+Mayer, Kirsten J. Sebastian Lerch, Catherine de Burgh-Day, and Marybeth C. Arcodia (under review): Machine Learning for S2S Prediction, Chapter in "Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting", second edition
Weston Anderson; Marybeth Arcodia; Dillon Amaya; Emily Becker; John Callahan; Jason Furtado; Benjamin Kirtman; Sanjiv Kumar; Michelle L’Heureux; Sarah Larson; Dan Li; Maria Molina; Matt Newman; Kathleen Pegion; Andrew Robertson; Erin Towler; Baoqiang Xiang. "The Critical Need for Hindcast Infrastructure in Climate Science and Sectoral Applications". 2025 Submitted to BAMS.
Richter, J. Everette Joseph, Marybeth Arcodia, and coauthors. "Earth System Predictability Across Time Scales for a Resilient Society: A Research Community Perspective". 2025. Submitted to BAMS.
Kirtman, B.P., Arcodia M., Becker, E., Besong-Cohen, K., Boyd, J., Daher, H., Gifford, I., Infanti, J., Kaiser, J., Kramer, S., Larson S., Laurindo L., Lopez, H., Malloy, K., Martinez, C., Papazian, K., Perlin, N., Schuler, C., Schoenwald, V., Siqueira, L., Zavadoff, B., Zhang, W., Pegion, K., 2024. "A Simplified Physics Atmosphere General Circulation Model for Idealized Climate Dynamics Studies". Submitted to BAMS.

2025

Arcodia, Marybeth C., Elizabeth A. Barnes, Paul J. Durack, Patrick W. Keys, and Juliette Rocha. "Sea surface salinity provides subseasonal predictability for forecasts of opportunity of US summertime precipitation." Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 130, no. 6 (2025): e2024JD042402.

2024

+Laís G. Fernandes, Matthew C. Wheeler, Alice M. Grimm, Marybeth C. Arcodia, Chapter 17 - Ocean–atmosphere interactions: Madden–Julian Oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, Editor(s): Bin Guan, Atmospheric Oscillations, Elsevier, 2025, Pages 335-362, ISBN 9780443156380, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-443-15638-0.00017-4.
Arcodia, M., Becker, E., & Kirtman, B.P. (2024). "Subseasonal Variability of U.S. Coastal Sea Level from MJO and ENSO Teleconnection Interference", Weather and Forecasting. https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0002.1

2023

Arcodia, M., E. Barnes, K.J. Mayer, J. Lee, A. Ordonez, M. Ahn. (2023) "Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI." Environmental Research: Climate, 2(4), 045002.
Arcodia, M., Kirtman, B.P. (2023). “Using simplified linear and nonlinear models to assess ENSO-modulated MJO teleconnections”. Climate Dynamics, 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06864-x
Clement, A., Troxler, T., Keefe, O., Arcodia, M., Cruz, M., Hernandez, A., Moanga, D., Adefris, Z., Brown, N., Jacobson, S., (2023) “Hyperlocal Observations Reveal Persistent Extreme Urban Heat in Southeast Florida”, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0165.1
- See media coverage: Miami Herald article, News at the U, Phys.org

2022

*Arcodia, M., Elizabeth Barnes, Charlotte Connolly, Frances Davenport, Zaibeth Carlo Frontera, Emily Gordon, Daniel Hueholt, Antonios Mamalakis and Elina Valkonen: Applied Machine Learning Tutorial for Earth Scientists
- Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6686879
- Github: https://github.com/eabarnes1010/ml_tutorial_csu
Arcodia, M. (2022). Subseasonal Variability of ENSO-Modulated MJO Teleconnections and the Regionalized North American Impacts (Doctoral dissertation, University of Miami).

2021

*Arcodia, M., Becker, E., & Kirtman, B.P. (2021). "Florida Coastal Flooding Today, Tomorrow, and the Coming Decades: A Flooding Report funded by the Miami Herald". https://github.com/mbarcodia/FL_coastalflooding_report

2020

Arcodia, M., Kirtman, B. P., & Siqueira, L. S. P. (2020). “How MJO Teleconnections and ENSO Interference Impacts U.S. Precipitation”, Journal of Climate, 33(11), 4621-4640. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0448.1
- See media coverage: News at the U; Phys.org; Science Daily
- Recipient of the University of Miami Rosenstiel School Best Student Publication Millero Prize (2020)

* denotes tutorials, newsletters, reports

+ denotes textbook chapter